Conviction Doesn't Equal Certainty

There are endless projections for the future of Bitcoin. There are predictions covered in optimism such as ARK Invest CEO Cathie Wood giving Bitcoin a base case of $600,000 and a bull case of $1.5 million per coin by the year 2030. There are predictions clouded by ignorance like geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan stating Bitcoin will go below $0. There are people like MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor who think Bitcoin is “going up forever.” And some people like JP Morgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon want nothing to do with predictions and say they will never talk about it again. 

For every bullish cash and prediction, there is a bearish adversary to match. No one can see the future. No one can know with complete certainty who will be right about the future of Bitcoin. The math states Bitcoin will either fade to $0 or continue growing towards an upward infinity. Time will tell which equation provides the real answer. 

Regardless of who is making their prediction for the future of Bitcoin, what they predict displays their level of conviction for the future possibilities of Bitcoin. Someone who predicts Bitcoin can reach a price point of over $1 million per coin has much higher conviction than someone who says it will slowly trend upward and consolidate around $50,000 per coin. Someone who thinks Bitcoin can reach $250,000 per coin has a much higher conviction than someone who says it will drop below $30,000 per coin. 

Their conviction is fueled by their understanding of Bitcoin and a subsequent belief in their understanding. The people who are most bullish on the future of Bitcoin are typically the people who have spent time learning about Bitcoin. The people who are most bearish about the future of Bitcoin are typically the people who have had little active participation in their knowledge journey. 

Having conviction is not a new concept in the world of investments. People invest in companies because they believe in the founder, product, and market they operate in, amongst many other reasons. People invest because they believe in what they think will happen. The people who have conviction buy and hold for the future and the people that don’t move onto other opportunities. This rationalization based on one's conviction is normal. 

While having a conviction in your investment is a part of investing, no conviction equals absolute certainty. Having a conviction doesn’t make your future reality any more real, it just lets you justify your thoughts and actions easier as you prepare for potential outcomes to come. 

A Prediction is a Prediction

A prediction for the future of Bitcoin is nothing more than a prediction. Using hours of learning as guidance turns that prediction into a calculated risk for the future. Letting headlines and buzzwords do the work helps ensure that prediction remains nothing more than a blind prediction. Both options are nothing more than predictions. Anything can happen. 

If you believe in and understand Bitcoin, there is no other prediction to be made about the future price aside from saying it will go “Up.” There is no need to handcuff yourself to a certain monetary value. Have conviction in your knowledge, and your continued knowledge acquisition and trust that your conviction ends up being true over a long-term time horizon. 

In the end, any future price for Bitcoin is unknown. It could go to $0 as many people think, or the percent return could continue multiplying to infinity. Your beliefs may shape your personal Bitcoin prediction, but only time and real-world action will determine what price is possible.

Stick to your convictions, zoom out, and enjoy the journey of the present moment. The future will come soon enough.

The views and opinions expressed here are for entertainment purposes only and should, in no way, be interpreted as financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research when making an investment or trading decision, as each such move involves risk. The team members behind Triana are not financial advisors and do not claim to be qualified to convey information or advice that a registered financial advisor would convey to clients as guidance. Nothing contained in this e-mail/article constitutes, or shall be construed as, an offering of financial instruments, investment advice, or recommendations of an investment strategy. If you are seeking financial advice, find a professional who is right for you.