2024 Has Always Been the Year of the Halving

With January coming to a close, the month of Bitcoin ETF approval is officially behind us. 

In the short term, these approvals haven’t had a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin, as the asset originally spiked to around $49,000 and then back down to the $40,000 to $43,000 range. 

The price of Bitcoin didn’t moon like you thought it would. 

Now What?

With a short-term view, you may be inclined to conclude that the sky is falling.

Remain calm. It’s that simple.

The sky isn’t falling. That’s a fact. It’s been less than a month since the Bitcoin Spot ETFs went live. Zoom out.

Let’s start with the realities of the Bitcoin ETFs already: 

Billions of dollars have already flowed into the Bitcoin ETFs and they have already passed Silver ETFs to become the second largest ETF commodity in the US.

I believe that the ETFs will continue to onboard record-breaking capital across the remainder of this year. Significant support will come from Bitcoin newbies allocating percentages of their investment portfolios to the Bitcoin Spot ETF products.

Here’s what’s coming up soon: 

The marketing competition from the different firms with a Spot ETF product will run rampant. It’s already heating up. The firms are now legally allowed to run ads on Google—BlackRock and VanEck have already started.

With the Super Bowl approaching in a week, the entire crypto space is anticipating these firms launching commercials to an audience of over 100 million people. 

I’m with them.

I believe we’re in for a night of Bitcoin advertisements that, like Matt Damon’s “Fortune Favors the Bold” Crypto.com commercial, we’ll remember for years to come. 

These financial institutions are competing for market share in one of the most exciting new products Wall Street and TradFi have seen in years. I don't expect them to squander this specific opportunity to market their new products.

The Super Bowl audience is being handed to the firms on a silver platter.

I expect them to feast.

Another reminder: It’s been less than a month since these ETFs went live. 

CALM DOWN. 

The reality is Spot ETF approvals were, and will continue to be, a big deal for the Bitcoin economy. 

But I’m here to say they’ll only be the second biggest Bitcoin event of 2024.

2024 was always the year of the halving. 

The halving will be here in less than 3 months. Post-halving, the annual inflation rate of Bitcoin will be less than gold for presumably, forever. Currently, Bitcoin has an annual inflation rate of 1.8% and after this year’s halving, that figure will drop to 0.9% annually. Gold’s annual inflation rate historically hovers around 1.5% to 2%.

With a fixed supply of 21 million coins and a lower annualized supply increase than gold, Bitcoin will officially become the hardest money in the world.

In preparation for the halving, we’re seeing Bitcoin’s hash rate repeatedly hitting all-time high marks. It currently stands at over 500 Exahashes per second. An increase in hash rate shows miner confidence and an overall more secure network.

Historically, hash rate uptrends correlate with price increases, while the price of Bitcoin is a lagging indicator. Once the halving occurs and miners receive half of the reward they have been for the last four years, we can expect the price to resume its correlation with the hash rate. 

2024 has always been focused around the halving because Bitcoin operates in 4-year cycles. 

The 2024 halving shouldn’t be different than what we have seen in the halvings of 2012, 2016, and 2020: a cycle of higher lows and higher highs. Until Bitcoin fails to operate in a 4-year cycle, we will expect it to do so.

It is impossible to predict exactly what price point Bitcoin will reach post-this year’s halving and it’s impossible to predict exactly when this price will occur.

Based on history, the facts at hand, AND the addition of the Spot ETFs, the upcoming halving is the featured event we have been waiting for. 

This is a reminder that the sky isn’t falling. 

A stagnant price simply means you can still buy cheaper SATs now. 

Zoom out and envision what Bitcoin could look like months from now, a year from now—years from now.

Until then, stay calm.

Keep stacking SATs.

The views and opinions expressed here are for entertainment purposes only and should, in no way, be interpreted as financial or investment advice. Always conduct your own research when making an investment or trading decision, as each such move involves risk. The team members behind Triana are not financial advisors and do not claim to be qualified to convey information or advice that a registered financial advisor would convey to clients as guidance. Nothing contained in this e-mail/article constitutes, or shall be construed as, an offering of financial instruments, investment advice, or recommendations of an investment strategy. If you are seeking financial advice, find a professional who is right for you.